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Comment by DarenWatson

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Comment by DarenWatson

There is a major disconnect in that people think token usage is exclusively tied to human typing rates...it isn't true. When software developers evolve to using self-managing CLI tools (like Claude Code - the source article mentions this), they are not merely chatting; they are unleashing loops of agency.

When you enter one single inquiry of "find and fix the memory leak in the billing service" you are not submitting just one single inquiry. The tool is searching through an entire code repository for relevant code, pulling 15 related files into context (easily 200k+ tokens) proposing a fix, running the test suite and failing, taking an entire stack trace of errors into context and looping to keep iterating towards the solution.. In that process you can loop multiple times (10+) in a very short period of times (within 5 minutes). While you grab a cup of coffee you will have consumed $20 in token usage. At the enterprise level (like with Uber) when you multiply that out by thousands of software developers using it as a personal shell tool your budget disappears very very quickly.

And on your point about the junior developer: Comparing $100,000/year in tokens to hiring a junior developer is such a ridiculous false equivalency that even makes you question whether they even understand how to make such a comparison.

The cost to a business of one junior engineer with a $100,000 salary is not just the $100,000 in salary but also an additional $40,000+ in benefits and taxes, as well as in hardware.

Also, you are disregarding another cost of hiring junior engineers that is their mentorship cost. Each week, your senior and staff engineers spend hours mentoring junior engineers by reviewing their code, pairing with them, and unblocking their progress. Mentoring requires a substantial amount of time and will be expensive to your business.

The return on investment (ROI) for the $10,000 monthly expenditure on tokens is not so much about replacing the junior engineer with the AI. Instead, the ROI is that your senior engineers can use the huge amount of compute power to create boilerplate and tests, and refactor their code 3x quicker than if they had to mentor junior engineers. In addition, LLMs do not sleep, require one-on-ones, or leave for another company for 20% more pay in 18 months, when the value to the code base made them an asset to your business.

Lastly, the main reason that Uber has problems with their AI business is that due to the UX of these agentic tools, developers think of the API calls made to the AI as free and as a result, treat them like a basic grep command.

Replies DarenWatson · 2026-05-01
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