Comment by ReticentVole

Comment by ReticentVole

COVID-19 is endemic. Even if first-world countries like the ones you mention can control it, it just takes one infected traveller from a 2nd/3rd world country to restart the whole thing.

The reality is that COVID is a relatively minor ailment, which is not deadly for the vast majority of people - the CDC estimates its IFR at 0.26%:

https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b...

There are already no excess deaths in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I think its quite likely that without the media storm, we would have put it down as a really bad flu, once in a quarter century, and got on with life. Last time Sweden's death rate was this high was during their 1993 Flu pandemic (an event which is entirely forgotten).

If we value life, we are about to bring a huge amount of misery to the world from our lockdown policies, already pushing 71 million into extreme poverty: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impac...

And allowing existing, mundane diseases to spread rapidly: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccin...

The underlying factor is the aging of populations in the West. Look at the forecast age profile for Italy in 2050: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/ about 13% of the population will be aged over 80! Mundane flu waves will kill scores of people, simply due to the demographics.

It is unfair to throw the rest of the planet's population under the bus to protect Baby Boomers in the West.

Its also remarkable that we can muster such effort to 'save' a fraction of the population, already sick and elderly, yet do very little to combat climate change which will impact humanity and the planet forever - not to mention the lives saved now from reducing air pollution.

Replies ReticentVole · 2020-06-21
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